Development Trend of China’s Truck Industry

23 Aug 2019

In the first half of 2019, China's total truck production was 1.949 million vehicles, with total sales of 1974,000 vehicles, decending 1.26% and 4.39% year-on-year, with an effective sales rate of 101.3%. In the first half of the year, the total production and sales fell sharply.

Among them, the sales volume of heavy trucks was 631,000, rising 0.13% year-on-year, and the market was in a stable transition. The sales volume of medium trucks  is 103,000, decending 20.84% year-on-year, and the market share continues to decline. Light truck sales amounted to 958,000 vehicles, decending 1.50% year-on-year, and warming trend brakes.

The sales volume of micro-cards was 284,000, rising 3.36% year-on-year, and the upward trend slowed down.

From the sharp rise in 2017 to the steady growth in 2018, and then to the stable transition in the first half of 2019, sales continued to rise, reaching a record high. However, due to the promotion of the policy of overtaking, the share of market sales slightly declined, and the overall production and sales in the future may have a downward trend.

Heavy truck market in 2018 from the downturn to gradually warming up, confirming the instability of market demand, industry development should respond to policy changes in a timely manner, do not focus on the current growth trend, the future is not expected.

The smooth transition in 2017, the downturn in 2018, the contraction again in the first half of 2019, the market sales generally fell, catering to the demand for social cargo, the market share of China-Kazakhstan gradually saturated, or even slightly contracted.

The overall development of the industry is in a downturn, production and sales volume is declining, large and medium-sized enterprises have stabilized in the production and sales of medium-sized cards, and small and medium-sized enterprises have low profits in the market of medium-sized cards. They should seek other markets. In the future, or with the change of policies, their demand for production and sales will rise, but it will not be impossible for them to stay and observe.

In 2017 and 2018, it continued to recover, accounting for half of the truck sales, and also contracted slightly in the first half of 2019. However, the problem of "blue light truck factory overload" exposed by CCTV Focus Interview on May 21 had a huge impact on the light truck market. Since then, the light truck sales have declined month by month, and its market share still has room for improvement.

But in the current situation, the light truck market is on the brake. With the policy updating and industry rectification, the development trend of the light truck market fluctuates. Risk and profit come together, and the industry competition is becoming more and more fierce. Large and medium-sized enterprises should think twice about the future planning and development of the light truck market.

The total production and sales of trucks are gradually increasing, the maximum saturation of the market still has some room to rise, the specific share of the subdivided market has changed tremendously, the market share of micro-cards has continued to rise, the heavy truck market remains to be observed, the market share of medium-sized trucks has declined slightly, the light truck market has been seriously fluctuated by the new policy, and the overall market trend is still upward. Exhibition.

It is worth mentioning that the spillover of its effective sales rate shows that the major truck manufacturers have actively started to deal with the backlog of surplus goods and implemented the goal of "de-stocking".

In terms of risk expectation, the observation of heavy truck market will be greatly influenced by overtreatment and high risk expectation, which will change with policy and rectification. The risk of medium truck market is low, but the corresponding profit is difficult to obtain. Its total profit tends to be saturated, or will change with policy in the future.

Light truck market has a serious impact, the future market may have a short downturn, with moderate risk expectations and constant changes in policy and rectification; the micro-card market is rising steadily, with low risk and sufficient profit, and has huge development space, the industry has the best development trend and the best development environment, but we also need to pay attention to policy changes.


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